Scenario Management
Our scenario management process
-
1Scouting for weak signalsSearch and identify weak signals, trends or other information.
-
2Derive factorsUse various methods to guide the first possible factors.
-
3Environmental scanningCheck and add your factors with the environment scanning methods.
-
4Determine key factorsIdentify factors with the strongest impact and most uncertain development process.
-
5Create scenariosCreate scenarios through the combination of factors and projections.
-
6Analyse scenariosUse various methods such as backcasting to analyse scenarios and derive your results.
-
7Communicate resultsExport, share and publish your results with the click of a button.
What is Scenario Management?
The Foresight Strategy Cockpit Scenario management module
Actively engange with possible futures
A scenario is a hypothetical way the future could develop and should be investigated and analyzed. It is made of a combination of projections belonging to two or more factors and described in detail.
The Scenario Management module offers three different methods of scenario construction. The Alternative and Explorative Scenario Construction as well as the Consistency Analysis. The latter is indispensable if a large number of factors and project pairs are to be analysed. In the Consistency Analysis, the consistency of projection pairs is evaluated and the system then calculates consistent raw and mixed scenarios.
Flexible scenario creation with no limits
In the Explorative Scenario Construction, users can create, edit and update factors with a few clicks. Within a factor, an unlimited amount of projections can be created. From these factor-projection-combinations detailed and differentiated scenarios can be designed.
Quick and simple: the four-axis scenario model
In the Alternative Scenario Construction two factors, each with two extreme projections (i.e. best and worst possible course) are set against each other in a matrix with four quadrants. Each factor-projection combination is described and thus, four scenarios are generated. The creation of a wild card as a fifth scenario is also possible.
Reliable scenarios through collaboration
The Consistency Analysis is a powerful tool for generating consistent and therefore, conclusive scenarios. The rating of consistencies can be done collaboratively - by all relevant members of your organization. The calculated scenarios are visualized either as clusters or in a two or three dimensional room.
Further features
-
Import pre-existing factors from other projects
-
Consistency Analysis
-
Link scenarios with trends, ideas, and risks
-
Manage, describe and edit scenarios
-
Visualize scenario clusters
Our values in short
-
Cooperative Scenario Management
-
Recognize opportunities and risks to adapt your strategy
-
Browser Add-on and App for faster integration of relevant pieces of information
-
Automated Reporting functions for fast communication
-
Fully supported and trained by our Foresight experts
FSC Modules
Through strategic foresight methods such as Trend Management and Scenario Construction, we can reduce the complexity and uncertainty of a rapidly changing globalized world.
Fact Sheet
-
All-in-one Foresight platform for unlimited users
-
Modular and web-based system
-
Combines qualitative and quantitative data
-
Various data visualizations
-
Real-time data and expert integration
-
Online team collaboration
-
State-of-the-art technology and security standards
-
Supports teams of futurists and scouts for future knowledge aggregation
Overview of all Methods
-
Reduce the amount of coordination and programs needed to manage trends and signals to a single software solution. Through a holistic aggregation of internal information, external expert knowledge and data-driven insights, every unit can collectively contribute to the assessment of relevant trends and their developments.
Summary
The scenario management technique allows you to combine ideas about positive and negative changes within individual development factors into comprehensive visions and models to create plausible scenarios.
In practice, this means that possible and probable visions of the future are summarised and developed. Based on such strategic thinking about the future, the strategic evaluation of the identified systems for action is ensured. In this way, future opportunities and risks can be identified. This technique helps to strengthen the integrity of action.
Good scenarios are plausible. But they are all too often novel, challenging and open up new perspectives that need to be analysed in detail and consequently integrated appropriately. By integrating scenario work into internal processes and systems, better decisions can be prepared for the future. Since the effects of possible future developments on a company can be evaluated with the help of the scenario management technique, the corporate strategy can be reviewed and, if necessary, adapted.
Speak to our experts to learn more about how scenario management can be applied to your context.
Frequently asked questions and answers
Scenarios and different visions of the future are used in the context of strategy development when there is a need to react to future market and environmental conditions and to optimise a company’s ability to act. Based on assumptions and analyses of potential influencing factors, forecasts can be made for the future course of a project. In this way it is possible to sharpen the view for future opportunities and risks. The effectiveness of actions can also be strengthened. Good scenarios are plausible, but they are also novel and challenging. Future-proof perspectives and insights are essential in an increasingly fast-moving environment; only in this way can the company successfully shape tomorrow by what it sets out to do today.
A wide variety of scenario techniques are used. There are methods based on trend extrapolations or trend analyses. Systematically formalised scenario techniques and creative narrative scenario techniques are also part of scenario management. As a rule, both the best case – the ideal course under favourable conditions – and the worst case, which shows the development under conceivably unfavourable assumptions, are prepared here.
Global change is taking place at an ever-increasing pace. Some future changes are already foreseeable today, but much uncertainty remains. Human actions can influence these changes both positively and negatively. Although looking at the future is always associated with a fair amount of uncertainty, the scenario technique helps to respond to possible events with foresight. Therefore, it provides a path to successful performance in tomorrow's competitive and market environment, especially when major changes are taking place.
